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OFI cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.44 xG and OFI 0.86 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. OFI outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 51% | Draw 27% | OFI 22%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a OFI win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 43%, OFI 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

OFI's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights