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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees OFI travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 January 2025, 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

OFI — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.60 PPG, OFI 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OFI in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with OFI winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

OFI in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 47% versus OFI 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 43% | OFI 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.44 xG and OFI 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.073 / defence 0.806 | OFI attack 0.959 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.111. Data: 42 Aris Thessalonikis games / 42 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 51% | Draw 27% | OFI 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | OFI 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | OFI 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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