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Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Levadiakos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Levadiakos 3-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Conference League Group - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.19 xG and Levadiakos 1.04 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against Levadiakos attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Draw 33% | Levadiakos 30%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Levadiakos 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Levadiakos's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.57 PPG, Levadiakos 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights