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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos finished level at 2-2 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 xG and Levadiakos 1.18 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Levadiakos attack 1.29 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 39%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Levadiakos 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Levadiakos's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.57 PPG, Levadiakos 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights