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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Larisa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Larisa 2-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.76 / defence 0.86 against Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 30% | Larisa 26%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 27%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights