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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa meet at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Larisa have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Larisa's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Trading Data

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Larisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 27% | Larisa 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.757 / defence 0.856 | Larisa attack 0.790 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.233. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Aris Thessalonikis games / 11 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 30% | Larisa 26%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Larisa 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Larisa 40% BTTS from recent games.

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