Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season.
Kallithea (all games): 0W 5D 2L across 7 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.71 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kallithea have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kallithea away from home this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Aris Thessalonikis. A 1.29 PPG lead over Kallithea (2.00 vs 0.71) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kallithea — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 57% versus Kallithea 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 29% | Kallithea 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 xG and Kallithea 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.224 / defence 0.828 | Kallithea attack 0.658 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.223. Data: 33 Aris Thessalonikis games / 7 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 32% | Kallithea 15%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Kallithea 6.67. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 70% | Kallithea 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 32% | Kallithea 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 / Kallithea 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.224 / def 0.828 | Kallithea attack 0.658 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Kallithea xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 Kallithea.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 53% chance of winning, Kallithea a 15% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Kallithea (all comps): 0W-5D-2L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.22) and Kallithea's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kallithea's attack (0.66x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
53%
1.89
32%
3.14
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.09
0.67
Kallithea xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
27.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.67 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kallithea, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 2L across 7 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kallithea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kallithea heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kallithea's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Kallithea in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Kallithea
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 0W 5D 2L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Kallithea away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.33 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Kallithea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kallithea in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
0
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea?
From 2 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Kallithea have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Kallithea 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Aris Thessalonikis, 67% for Kallithea — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Aris Thessalonikis and 33% for Kallithea.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kallithea in 33%; Kallithea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Kallithea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 67% of Kallithea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 33% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Kallithea tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kallithea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Kallithea 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 xG and Kallithea 0.67 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.22 / defence 0.83 against Kallithea attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 32% | Kallithea 15%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 29%, Kallithea 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kallithea's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kallithea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.