🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 xG and Atromitos 1.00 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.84 against Atromitos attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 35%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atromitos's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.53 PPG, Atromitos 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights