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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Atromitos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Conference League Play-off Group - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 xG and Atromitos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.96 / defence 0.76 against Atromitos attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 39%, Atromitos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atromitos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights