Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Atromitos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG and Atromitos 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Atromitos attack 1.19 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 32%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Atromitos's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights