Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.41
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.56
1.20
Atromitos xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.20 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.