🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 0-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 34%, Asteras Tripolis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights