Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 4–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Asteras Tripolis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Asteras Tripolis 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.821 / defence 0.946 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.738 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.241. Data: 35 Aris Thessalonikis games / 35 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Asteras Tripolis 4.35. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 / Asteras Tripolis 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.821 / def 0.946 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.738 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Asteras Tripolis xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 48% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (8 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 5W | Draws 1 | Asteras Tripolis 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.82) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.74x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.51
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.25
0.87
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.87 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 19W 11D 11L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 14W 8D 19L from 41 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.15 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 19W 11D 11L in their last 41 games (1.66 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 8D 19L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.05 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 40%, Asteras Tripolis 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Aris Thessalonikis and 45% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 55% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 45% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 0-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 34%, Asteras Tripolis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.