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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Asteras Tripolis 4-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Conference League Play-off Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.25 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.80 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.96 / defence 0.79 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 47% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 24%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 38%, Asteras Tripolis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights