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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 25% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 47%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 34%, AEK Athens FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.62 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights