AEK Athens FC vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 76%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Allwyn Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allwyn Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.
PAOK (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AEK Athens FC, 4 for PAOK and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 38% versus PAOK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 45% | PAOK 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.73 xG and PAOK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.660 / defence 0.650 | PAOK attack 1.268 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.660 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 0.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 AEK Athens FC games / 35 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 76% | Draw 16% | PAOK 8%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | PAOK 12.50. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 76% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 20% | PAOK 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 76% | Draw 16% | PAOK 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 54% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.73 / PAOK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.660 / def 0.650 | PAOK attack 1.268 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 76% chance of winning, PAOK a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
Record (10 meetings): AEK Athens FC 2W | Draws 4 | PAOK 4W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.66x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.27x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.36
8%
12.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.57
0.83
PAOK xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.36
16%
Draw
12.59
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
7%
15.38
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
193.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.83 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 40 games, going 26W 11D 3L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.98 PPG from 40 outings (23W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.22 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.98 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 17W 2D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.90 scored and 0.92 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; PAOK in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 26W 11D 3L in their last 40 games (2.22 PPG), while PAOK have gone 23W 10D 7L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.65 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, PAOK in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 25%, PAOK 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for AEK Athens FC and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 65% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAOK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.