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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 2-3 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG and PAOK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.70 against PAOK attack 1.35 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 49% | Draw 26% | PAOK 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 58%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

PAOK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.11 PPG, PAOK 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights