🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Allwyn Arena, Championship Group - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.72 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 / defence 0.67, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 43%, Olympiakos Piraeus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.97 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights