🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AEK Athens FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 0-2 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.03 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.26 / defence 0.68, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 37% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 58%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.02 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights