AEK Athens FC vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allwyn Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AEK Athens FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
OFI trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 37% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 43% | OFI 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.58 xG and OFI 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.575 / defence 0.712 | OFI attack 1.029 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.998. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.575 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 AEK Athens FC games / 29 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 19% | OFI 6%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.33 | Draw 5.26 | OFI 16.67. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (75%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 30% | OFI 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 19% | OFI 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 50% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.58 / OFI 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.575 / def 0.712 | OFI attack 1.029 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.484 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.73
OFI xG
50%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 75% chance of winning, OFI a 6% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): AEK Athens FC 7W | Draws 1 | OFI 2W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.57) and OFI's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
75%
1.33
19%
5.34
6%
16.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.31
0.73
OFI xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
16.00
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
8%
13.14
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.73 for OFI, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 23W 10D 2L from 35 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 14W 3D 18L across 35 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 14W 2D 1L from 17 games — 2.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 3D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.37 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 23W 10D 2L in their last 35 games (2.26 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 3D 18L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.59 PPG; OFI away: 0.88 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, OFI in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, OFI have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 29%, OFI 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for AEK Athens FC and 76% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 65% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 76% of OFI's.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OFI in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.