AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allwyn Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AEK Athens FC at 2.00 PPG versus OFI's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AEK Athens FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The historical record gives AEK Athens FC a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
OFI trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 40% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 43% | OFI 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.12 xG and OFI 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.560 / defence 0.784 | OFI attack 1.045 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 0.996. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.560 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 AEK Athens FC games / 31 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 65% | Draw 24% | OFI 11%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | OFI 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 65% | Draw 24% | OFI 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.12 / OFI 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.560 / def 0.784 | OFI attack 1.045 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.370 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
OFI xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 65% chance of winning, OFI a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): AEK Athens FC 7W | Draws 0 | OFI 2W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.56) and OFI's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
65%
1.54
24%
4.19
11%
9.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.93
0.82
OFI xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
9.05
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
75.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.82 for OFI, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 24W 11D 2L from 37 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 18L across 37 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 15W 2D 1L from 18 games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 5W 3D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.38 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 24W 11D 2L in their last 37 games (2.24 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 4D 18L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.61 PPG; OFI away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AEK Athens FC
0
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 8, OFI have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 28%, OFI 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for AEK Athens FC and 72% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 61% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 72% of OFI's.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, OFI in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 3-0 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.12 xG and OFI 0.82 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.56 / defence 0.78 against OFI attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 65% | Draw 24% | OFI 11%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 43%, OFI 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.