AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (84%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC at Allwyn Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Levadiakos in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Historically, AEK Athens FC have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Levadiakos managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The historical record gives AEK Athens FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 38% versus Levadiakos 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 45% | Levadiakos 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.66 xG and Levadiakos 0.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.661 / defence 0.644 | Levadiakos attack 0.630 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.032. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.661 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 AEK Athens FC games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 84% | Draw 12% | Levadiakos 3%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.19 | Draw 8.33 | Levadiakos 33.33. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (84%) — a 81pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 20% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 84% | Draw 12% | Levadiakos 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 32% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.66 / Levadiakos 0.42 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.661 / def 0.644 | Levadiakos attack 0.630 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.42
Levadiakos xG
32%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 84% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 3% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): AEK Athens FC 5W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.66x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.63x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.42.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
84%
1.19
12%
8.17
3%
29.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.08
0.42
Levadiakos xG
1.19
84%
Home win
8.17
12%
Draw
29.33
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
66%
1.52
7%
14.34
Win to Nil
55%
1.80
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.3 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 14.4 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.42 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 26W 11D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 15W 10D 15L from 40 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.65 PPG from 20 outings (17W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.58 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 26W 11D 3L in their last 40 games (2.22 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Levadiakos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.65 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.05 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AEK Athens FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (AEK Athens FC) and 40% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (AEK Athens FC) and 55% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Levadiakos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 55% of Levadiakos's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.