🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 16, as AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.51 xG and Levadiakos 0.89 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.66 against Levadiakos attack 1.18 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 73% | Draw 16% | Levadiakos 11%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 40%, Levadiakos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.

Levadiakos's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights