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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.80 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.73 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 36%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.79 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights