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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 0-4 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.53 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.19 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 39%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.43 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights