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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out Union Berlin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.68 xG and Union Berlin 1.57 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 40% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 35%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 68%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Berlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.44 PPG, Union Berlin 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights