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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 4-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.29 xG and Union Berlin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.33 PPG, Union Berlin 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights