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Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 0-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.10 xG and SC Freiburg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against SC Freiburg attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 52% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 27%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 68%, SC Freiburg 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.49 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights