🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.38 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.76 / defence 1.11 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 28% | FSV Mainz 05 36%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 61%, FSV Mainz 05 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.29 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights