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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.45 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.00 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 50%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, FSV Mainz 05 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.30 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights