🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.28 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.61 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 45%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 69%, FC St. Pauli 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights