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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 1-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and FC Augsburg 1.39 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against FC Augsburg attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights