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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.27 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 56% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 24%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, FC Augsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.33 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights