Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Weserstadion to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's home record at Weserstadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Werder Bremen) versus 1.00 (Eintracht Frankfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 4 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 55% and Eintracht Frankfurt 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 58% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.008 / defence 1.142 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.125 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.993 / away 1.401. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Werder Bremen games / 40 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 55% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Frankfurt 27%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.70. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 55% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Frankfurt 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 77% | xG Werder Bremen 2.56 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.008 / def 1.142 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.125 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.993 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Weserstadion.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 55% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 27% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (10 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.01x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.8%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
55%
1.83
19%
5.37
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
4.36
1.80
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.83
55%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.36
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
8%
12.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
2%
48.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.80 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 4.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 14L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.02 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 5W 8D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.78 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 72%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.30 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 55%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Werder Bremen and 75% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Werder Bremen's games and 85% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Werder Bremen's matches and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.