FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as FSV Mainz 05 welcome RB Leipzig to Mewa Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's home record at Mewa Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FSV Mainz 05 at 1.70 PPG versus RB Leipzig's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 5, RB Leipzig 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
RB Leipzig trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 60% and RB Leipzig 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 51% | RB Leipzig 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.45 xG and RB Leipzig 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.752 / defence 0.938 | RB Leipzig attack 1.034 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 FSV Mainz 05 games / 35 RB Leipzig games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 33%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | RB Leipzig 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | RB Leipzig 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.45 / RB Leipzig 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.752 / def 0.938 | RB Leipzig attack 1.034 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Mewa Arena.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 40% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig?
Record (10 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 5W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.60
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.75
1.30
RB Leipzig xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.30 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 10W 11D 14L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig's form line: 21W 5D 9L from 35 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FSV Mainz 05.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.97 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; RB Leipzig in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 21W 5D 9L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.06 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.59 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jan 2022, when RB Leipzig won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 59%, RB Leipzig 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FSV Mainz 05) and 65% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 59% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 65% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.