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Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 20, as Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 29% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.30 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights