Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weserstadion, Werder Bremen have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Werder Bremen's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Werder Bremen 2W, 1. FC Köln 2W, 5D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 55% and 1. FC Köln 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 57% | 1. FC Köln 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.07 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.042 / defence 1.000 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.773 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Werder Bremen games / 42 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 60% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 18%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Köln 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 60% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Werder Bremen 2.07 / 1. FC Köln 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.042 / def 1.000 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.773 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
1. FC Köln xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Weserstadion.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 60% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln?
Record (9 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 5 | 1. FC Köln 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (1.04) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.77x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.63
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.13
1.06
1. FC Köln xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
42.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.06 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 19L across 42 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Werder Bremen against 0.98 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 2W 8D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.38 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 79%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 9W 14D 19L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.38 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 7-1 on 21 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
5
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln?
From 9 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 52%, 1. FC Köln 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Werder Bremen) and 52% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Werder Bremen's games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 52% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.