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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-3 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.62 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 40%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights