VfL Wolfsburg 0-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Volkswagen Arena to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Volkswagen Arena, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 0W 6D 4L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. VfB Stuttgart's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 3 for VfB Stuttgart and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 68% and VfB Stuttgart 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 58% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.898 / defence 1.089 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.991 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.503. Data: 40 VfL Wolfsburg games / 40 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 40%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 / VfB Stuttgart 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.898 / def 1.089 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.991 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.62
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 36% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (8 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 3W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.90x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
36%
2.80
24%
4.11
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.15
1.62
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.20
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.62 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 12D 16L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (18W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 3W 9D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.80 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.90 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 75%, VfB Stuttgart at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for VfL Wolfsburg and 70% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 65% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 70% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-3 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.62 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 40%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.