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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 3-1 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 xG and Union Berlin 1.58 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.30 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 43%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 59%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.13 PPG, Union Berlin 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights