🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-4 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.75 xG and SC Freiburg 1.48 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against SC Freiburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 32%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 60%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.21 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights