VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfL Wolfsburg (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfL Wolfsburg face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VfL Wolfsburg at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hertha BSC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hertha BSC's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward VfL Wolfsburg. A 0.90 PPG lead over Hertha BSC (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, VfL Wolfsburg are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2023, ended 5–0 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The historical record gives VfL Wolfsburg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 42% versus Hertha BSC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 54% | Hertha BSC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 2.77 xG and Hertha BSC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.061 / defence 0.972 | Hertha BSC attack 0.889 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.302. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 VfL Wolfsburg games / 67 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 70% | Draw 18% | Hertha BSC 12%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Hertha BSC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to VfL Wolfsburg (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.77 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Hertha BSC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 70% | Draw 18% | Hertha BSC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 65% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 2.77 / Hertha BSC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.061 / def 0.972 | Hertha BSC attack 0.889 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
65%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 70% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 3W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (1.06) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.89x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.56
12%
8.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.90
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
8.67
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
6%
15.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
1%
138.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.12 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 16D 26L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.93 PPG from 67 outings (16W 14D 37L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.61 points per game from 33 outings (5W 5D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.15 scored and 2.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 25W 16D 26L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 16W 14D 37L in their last 67 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.48 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.61 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 48%, Hertha BSC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VfL Wolfsburg and 61% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 54% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 61% of Hertha BSC's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 2.77 xG and Hertha BSC 1.12 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 1.43, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 70% | Draw 18% | Hertha BSC 12%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 54%, Hertha BSC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.