VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as VfB Stuttgart welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.30 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 69% and 1899 Hoffenheim 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 57% | 1899 Hoffenheim 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.896 / defence 1.016 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.842 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.302. Data: 67 VfB Stuttgart games / 67 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 45% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4.00. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 45% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.55 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.896 / def 1.016 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.842 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.11
1899 Hoffenheim xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 45% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (3 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.90x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.31
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.66
1.11
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.11 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 14W 23D 30L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 23W 12D 32L from 67 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 0.97 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.27 PPG from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 6D 19L from 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 63%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 23D 30L in their last 67 games (0.97 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 23W 12D 32L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.27 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
6
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 73%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for VfB Stuttgart and 67% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 58% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 34, as VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.11 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 45% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 57%, 1899 Hoffenheim 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 0.97 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.