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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.65 xG and Hamburger SV 1.34 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.39 against Hamburger SV attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 31%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 64%, Hamburger SV 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.09 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights