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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 2, as VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.48 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.62 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 41%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 60%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.31 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights