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Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.53 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.37 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.37 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 33%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 61%, FC St. Pauli 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights