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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 25, as VfL Wolfsburg and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.57 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.97 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.66 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 22%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, FC St. Pauli 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.28 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights