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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.12 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights