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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.47 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.17 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights