VfL Bochum vs Werder Bremen – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out VfL Bochum 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat VfL Bochum 0-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.40 xG and Werder Bremen 2.08 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Bochum fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Werder Bremen attack 1.13 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 24% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 51%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 65%, Werder Bremen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights